How long will the industry’s boom time last?

No one questions that travel is booming, but there’s less agreement on how long the boom will last. Is the current booking frenzy simply the final throes of pandemic-era pent-up demand? Or did the pause in travel trigger a new and lasting shift in consumer behavior, one in which experience will forever be valued over goods? And how do remote-work trends fit into the picture?

Whether what we’re seeing is a short-term reaction to the pandemic, the beginning of a long pendulum swing that will eventually reverse or a more permanent change in the consumer mindset is something everyone in the industry is trying to figure out. We asked executives from different travel segments what they’re seeing, and what they’re predicting.

— Arnie Weissmann, editor in chief

Matt Berna

President and managing director, Americas, Intrepid Travel

It’s true that the market is settling down from the initial burst following the pandemic, with many travelers rebooking trips that were impacted earlier, but demand remains very strong. In fact, our trip bookings are holding pace at 100% over what we saw in 2019. This is due in part to pent-up demand, but we’ve also had success in attracting new customers with increased awareness and ever-expanding offerings, including our highly popular premium tours. 

Although we can’t say what will happen during the rest of 2023, it’s been an amazing start to the year. We do expect to see shifts in the destinations that have been trending; some areas, like Iceland, may start to cool off, but others, like Japan and Korea, will hold steady.

We also expect to see changes in the way our customers travel: With a more flexible workforce than ever, more are opting to book into shoulder seasons to avoid busy months, resulting in a record month for September departures. Many are also staying a few days before and after their trip to work remotely. We also anticipate more Americans taking shorter domestic holidays to allow longer trips overseas.

Larry Cuculic

CEO, BWH Hotels

Some still use the term pent-up demand, but I don’t. I consider what we’re seeing now to be “life-value demand.” To me, when you take something away from someone, they truly realize the value of it. So, coming out of the pandemic, pent-up demand meant, “Oh, I was going to take that one trip before, but now I’ve had to move it to a year later.” To me, the demand now is more about “Boy, I really missed seeing my family. So, I’m going to make sure I see them every year.” It’s a lifestyle change. We can certainly see that there are inflation and interest rate pressures, but there’s also sunlight peeking through those clouds. It’s that value of travel — that’s the light shining though.

Ron Pohl

President of international operations, BWH Hotels, and president, WorldHotels

While I think we will start to see travel taper a bit from the surge we’ve seen over the past two years here in North America, we will also replace that with the international travel that’s been able to come back. I also don’t think that the government is going to let anything bad happen during an election year. So, I think we’ll see strong demand continue, because high consumer confidence, high corporate confidence and what’s happening in the country is going to be critically important. All that bodes very well for our industry.

Alex Sharpe

CEO, Signature Travel Network

The current travel boom has been unlike anything we’ve seen. Even if you consider it might feel even bigger because the past two-plus years were so difficult, or you believe there are fewer advisors to manage this demand, a look at the empirical numbers reflects that this is the strongest demand we have ever had. So when will it end?

I would argue something fundamentally changes in travel after the world has been through the wringer. I would argue that the demand for travel might forever be stronger because people value travel more than they ever have. Ground your kid for a week and realize how much they enjoy their freedom when released .... Now, think about the world being virtually shut down for over 100 weeks.

That said, will there be factors that will impact travel? Yes! We are the most exposed trade to external pressures: politics, terrorism, recession, environmental issues and, yes, viruses. So, there will always be an ebb and flow, but my summation is that demand will forever be stronger overall, and that is why we continue to see significant investment in new ships, new hotels and emerging destinations. The future is bright.

Debra Brown

President, SmartBird World Travel/
SB World Luxe Travel

We’re definitely experiencing a travel boom, but it hasn’t peaked or plateaued yet. It’s cycled through dips and surges due to varying global issues like inflation, a pending recession, pandemic restrictions, geopolitical [instability] and safety/security concerns arising from uneven media coverage. But the curve continuously rises.

What I’m seeing is extensive bucket-list travel. Clients, whether as individuals or groups, are looking to do more and experience more. There are a number of people who are still working remotely; they’re taking longer trips because they’re combining work days with leisure days. Cruising is back. I’m seeing a lot of small groups, celebratory and multigenerational travelers. I’m working with a number of, say, four to six couples taking some pretty nice vacations together. 

As far as money is concerned, with rising and higher costs of nearly everything, they expect to pay more. We’re seeing a little stagnation when it comes to the sticker shock from the cost of international and domestic  flights coupled with reduced availability for near-term travel. There are still a number of destinations that face employee issues or feel they need to dial back tourism for environmental and quality of life reasons.

But overall, viewing the boom on a holistic basis, it’s steadily growing — it’s not declining. Some of my best clients are just now taking their first trip in three years. I think that, personally, the travel boom won’t plateau until mid-2025, when supply and demand start to normalize.

Dennis Speigel

President and founder, International Theme Park Services

It has been interesting to watch the 2023 theme park season get off to a rather peculiar start due to weather, and it’s still early to get a respectable read.

So far, we have seen excellent traffic to the destination parks like Disney and Universal where visitors’ plans are locked in months in advance, related to airlines and hotel reservations. I believe, for the most part, our peak season period — June to August — will continue to fare well for the destinations, carrying well into the fall. International travel is strong and on the rebound, buoying the West and East Coast destination attractions. I anticipate an up season for the destinations through the end of 2023 — a strong year.

We are currently watching regional parks like Six Flags, Cedar Point and Kings Island, which can be affected by local economies, oil prices and grocery prices. We have seen a softening of attendance at this early point in time, but it could reverse itself. It is possible staycations will kick in for the regionals, but it’s still too early to read. I’m anticipating flat-to-up-slightly attendance for the regionals.

I believe the boom will continue for destination parks through the first quarter of 2024. Regional movement will continue through mid-August, when schools return, then again in early October for Halloween, a huge time of the year for parks.

Dave Harvey

Vice president and chief sales officer, Southwest Airlines

Everyone is trying to look into their crystal ball.

At the end of the day, whether it’s business or leisure, buying a plane ticket is a choice involving disposable income. It gets into how healthy businesses are and how healthy individuals’ pocketbooks are.

Clearly there’s a lot going on with inflation. I don’t necessarily have the answer for what the short and medium term looks like, but I think that any time we’ve seen big shocks to the system, like 9/11 or the Great Recession, you tend to see growth coming out of those business cycles. There are a lot of people out there talking about cloudy skies right now, but we just continue to see strong demand. We’re seeing consumer confidence and business confidence continuing to be strong.

We are growing the airline above and beyond 2019 levels, with a lot of new routes and more seats, to try and capture this demand upswing, and we’ve been very pleased with our load factors this summer. As far as fares go, now that the airline networks have largely been restored, you’re starting to see supply get more in line to capture the high demand for air travel. Demand is still very high across the country.

Gus Antorcha

President, Holland America Line

In April, I had the chance to visit with guests on our Grand World Voyage. If you ever want to be inspired about the future of cruising, talk to people who sail three months a year. It’s clear the opportunities for cruising and travel advisors are growing and will continue to flourish.

While some reports suggest high air and hotel costs are tapering off, guests are showing us with their bookings they still want to cross new destinations off their bucket lists. This is notable with first-timer interest in Alaska but also to destinations such as Iceland, Greenland, the Amazon or Antarctica.

Consumers are spending on experiences over things, and that is a natural connection to the convenience, experience and value of cruising over land alternatives. We’ve leaned into convenience with an increase in see-the-world-from-your-doorstep, roundtrip global voyages from U.S. homeports. And at a time when consumers feel disappointed by cuts in services, we remain the pleasant surprise, whether it’s a frequently cleaned room or crew who know your name.

Cruising also supports travel advisors who have clients seeking something extra. Commissionable add-on bundles of drinks, tours and more, such as our Have it All package, match travelers’ desire to get the most out of their vacations.

It’s especially gratifying to be able to say that in our 150th year, we’re as confident as ever in the future of cruising.